Draft Schmaft

Congratulations to my friends, Joe Bogli, Kareem O’Brien, Paul Clarke, and Marc Carisse for their tops this past weekend in Chicago.  This past weekend at YCS Chicago, marked the end of the latest format.  I was intrigued throughout the event by a few different ideas that popped up, Jeff Jones and Robbie Boyajian’s Crane Crane Ghostricks, and the large number of Geargia decks that were being piloted throughout the event by good players. The draft portion of the event, however, caused my attention to almost disappear.  It seems pointless to me, to pilot a deck that you have constructed to withstand through 11 rounds of swiss to top 32, only to have to draft for the top 16 in an entirely different format.  Not only that, from what it sounds like not all of the rules were entirely explained to the participants (the mulligan rule) prior to the event or top 16 beginning.  For those who are unaware, participants in the top 16 draft are allowed to mulligan their hand once per best two out of three match. 

Last year, Konami held successful Sealed YCS(s), in Brussels and San Diego, and prior to that in Sheffield.  Having participated in San Diego, I can say from experience that while the format allowed for skill to shine through on occasion, it was overshadowed by many subpar cards being included in the Battle Pack itself.  With San Diego being the first Battle Pack, it also included numerous banned cards that if drafted in multiples, it would become very difficult for that participant to lose more than the required 2 matches to not make day two.  On day two, the slate would be wiped clean and participants would transition from sealed play into constructed play for five rounds with a cut to top 32.  This allowed for some players to choose interesting deck choices, that they may not normally make for a nine round regionals, let alone a YCS, as these decks may be too inconsistent too sustain itself throughout a tournament of that length.  Notably, Allen Pennington piloted Gishki to a top 32 finish in that event.

While I believe that both of these tournament setups are flawed, there can be a way to incorporate both of these styles of play into one tournament if that is Konami’s aim.  I do not believe that having the top 16 participate in a draft format is the way to accomplish this.  It takes a lot of interest out of finding out who won the event or even more specifically “what won” the event.  For instance, yesterday in Chicago there was a Dark World deck that moved into the top 16, something that has not been seen often this past format.  I believe one way to incorporate sealed and constructed play together is to expand on the previous setup from San Diego.  Firstly, continue to hold entirely constructed YCS(s) as they allow for players who enjoy only constructed to have events that matter to them.  Secondly, rather than have records “wipe clean”, so to speak at the beginning of the constructed portion of day two, have a cumulative record.  This way, players are forced to not only do well in the sealed portion of the YCS, but also the constructed portion.  This prevents sneaking in to day two and topping with a worse overall record from someone else.  Finally, create a pack that is not only structured for sealed and draft play, but where all or most of the cards included are “good by themselves” rather than the inclusion of too many overpowered cards that will again allow for lucky or subpar players to do well.

In short, the current system that Konami is operating under is flawed and needs to be replaced.  It does not allow for players to accurately determine what deck is ultimately the most consistent, nor does it allow the audience see the best performing players pilot their decks through the top 16 gauntlet.

Estimation of Damages

As YuGiOh players, one thing that we all have to do post-reprints or post-ban list release is review what has happened and what this means going forward.  By comparison, in the stock market there are days when there are major market releases, such as, the job numbers for American economy or whether or not interest rates will be raised.  Similar to the YuGiOh marketplace, this can incite panic or bullishness amongst investors.  We must determine what our value situation is going forward on certain cards, whether it is a good idea to move them now (are they peaking or have they peaked?) or whether it is a good idea to hang on to them (do we think they will rise or peak higher in the future?).  Sounds simple enough, right?  As discussed in the previous article, there are numerous factors that can affect the outcome of the value of these cards.  Here are some cards that I currently believe are amongst the worst losers, biggest gainers, and sleepers among the recently announced information from the fresh ban list to the both the Premium Gold & Fire Fist Special Edition.

Biggest Losers

Coach Soldier Wolfbark

Okay this almost goes without saying.  A popular secret rare, played in one of the best decks in the expiring format at three, and it has recently been limited to one.  It will not only cause an influx in supply, there will be people dropping the deck as well, because they have come to the conclusion that with Wolfbark at one the deck simply will not be competitive enough for them.  Ultimately, Wolfbark may never reach its lofty heights again.

Was: $40-50 (Peak ~$55-60)

Now: $20-25

Fire Formation – Tenki (Ultimate Rare)

While this is a bit speculative, since Ultimate Rare Tenki is still between $45-50 on eBay at the moment, with it being released in both Premium Gold and the Fire Fist Special Edition in such rapid succession, I believe that this could potentially drop the value of Ultimate Rare Tenki by a little bit.  It will not plummet by any stretch of the imagination but it may bring it back to reality slightly.

Speculation: $30-35

Now: $45-50

Brotherhood of the Fire Fist – Tiger King (Any)

Again, speculative as the price has not yet moved too much from where it was prior to the ban list, but Tiger King does see its first reprint in Premium Gold next week and with Fire Fist taking a significant hit with the limitation of Coach Soldier Wolfbark, Tiger King could see a decline in popularity and therefore a decline in price.

Speculation: $5-7 (Ultra)/$10-12 (Ultimate)

Now: $8-10 (Ultra)/$15-20 (Ultimate)

Biggest Winners

Necroface (GLAS Secret, 1^st Edition)

Necroface is known to many duelists as that card that went crazy around pre-order time and for a long time after its release.  For those who are not aware, Necroface went crazy around pre-order time.  It jumped from being a $150-200 preorder to a $300-400 card almost instantaneously.  Those who were holding them prior to it getting semi-limited are happy as they saw a bit of appreciation in their investment.

Was: $45-50

Now: $90-100

Geargiagear

Surprisingly, Geargia was not hit at all on the ban list and with great support coming in Geargiauger and other level three support coming soon as well, Geargiagear could prove to be a profitable investment.  At a relatively low cost of $2.50-3 at the moment, it could see a rise to ~$7 given the chance and if it were considered the top deck in a format.

Speculation: $6-7

Now: $3

Geargiarmor

For the same reasons above, Geargiarmor is the heart of the deck and could see a significant rise as well.

Speculation: $15-20

Now: $10

Sleepers

Armades, Keeper of Boundaries

Okay, this card is already worth a pretty decent buck.  Make no mistake though, this card is really, really good.  It will continue to rise slowly and those who pick them up will be rewarded.

Forbidden Lance (Common)

Forbidden Lance is incredibly easy to find at the moment.  I remember a time back around BP01 where this card was a solid $3-5 and I dropped the ball thinking it would never go much higher than that.  Remember when they rose to ~$10 before BP02 came out and settled it back down a bit?  That will happen again.  Forbidden Lance is far too versatile a card to remain this low on the secondary market for a very long time.  Hoard them for now.

Ally of Justice Cycle Reader

This is a pre-PRIO play that still has room to go up.  They are obviously substantially more than what they were had you picked them up when you were supposed to ages ago, however they have room to grow.  Remember Droll & Lock Bird?  This card was in a pretty crappy Hidden Arsenal that most people only bought for Barkion.  It will also be needed in droves when it comes time for Artifacts to shine.  Gather them up.

Daigusto Emeral

While people obviously already know about Emeral and are aware of it as a card, I feel we are not far away from this card being a popular extra-deck monster.  At that time, it will only go up from where it is now, probably to similar heights as its HA07 counterpart, Lavalval Chain.

Remember to be patient and diversify your investments in different cards.  Do not invest so much into something that it will saturate your market when you the value of the card actually goes up.  If it rises incredibly, then of course it will not matter how many you have since you can unload them all online.  Sometimes your investments will not pan out though, and you will want to be able to liquidate your position quickly and safely.

Yugi-Nomics: The Capitalism of YuGiOh

The secondary market in YuGiOh is built like any other capitalistic society.  It is a market built on supply and demand.  The market value of cards will fluctuate based on what is popular in top decks in the current format, reprints of a high value card, new ban list announcements, or hype.  These fundamental alterations signify changes in the demand of the product.  The increase in demand or decrease in demand that these changes can bring will ultimately have a correlating effect on the supply of the product.  If demand goes down, supply goes up, and vice-versa.  For instance, if a deck that is considered to be decent does significantly well at an event, the prices of cards in that deck will go up, because it is likely that they are more desirable after the event.  The reverse can occur as well, if a deck is expected to do very well at an event or if a card is expected to perform very well, but then underperforms, it is likely that the value of the card will drop after the event. 

In general, if a popular card is reprinted it normally has a negative effect on the current value of that card.  This is primarily for a few reasons.  The first is that players who own the card panic and believe that the price of the card will begin to drop to the basement, so they offload whatever stock they currently have of that card.  The second is that players who do not care about rarity or are not using the card will tend to try to offload theirs as well as to get the greatest return that they can out of them.  The third is that most importantly the demand will drop.  This is simply because players who do not have the card will not want it, as they know that it is getting reprinted; therefore, only players who have to play the card will generally be looking to pick them up.

When a new ban list is announced it can have an extreme effect on the secondary market.  If a popular card is released from the shackles of the forbidden list, high rarity versions of that card will normally appreciate the most from its new found legality.  Conversely, if a card’s usage is limited then its price usually shrinks, and generally, the higher the rarity the bigger the drop.  It can have an extreme effect on cards that are not even named anywhere on the list as well.  This effect is caused by speculation that these cards will be highly sought after once the list has taken effect. 

Hype is a huge reason for many of the fluctuations that happen all the time in YuGiOh.  If a new card is announced that the player base perceives to be “broken” or overpowered, then cards of a similar archetype will quickly skyrocket in value.  The same can be said about cards that are perceived to be counters to the deck that just got support.  A good example of this is Droll & Lock Bird.  Upon the announcement of Spellbook of Judgment, it was quickly hailed as one of the most broken cards to ever be released.  Once announced, players began looking for ways to counter and stop Spellbook of Judgment.  Enter Droll & Lock Bird.  Droll & Lock Bird is a rare from the low-printed Starstrike Blast.  Due to Droll & Lock Bird being completely irrelevant prior to the announcement of Spellbook of Judgment they were available for as low as $0.10-$0.25 each.  Those who invested, cashed in huge when the card rose to just under $10 each during nationals season 2013.

Besides supply and demand, there are other factors that can affect how effectively you can sell cards.  The most important two, however, are your market and your price point.  The market simply refers to who you have available to you that you are able to sell to.  Secondly, your price point is incredibly important, because if someone can get it cheaper somewhere else, chances are, they will.  In order to make money efficiently and effectively, one has to price and market themselves accordingly.  If people do not know that you are constantly buying and selling, how can you expect them to know to come to you when they need something?  Pricing yourself efficiently can be a difficult task.  You want to price your cards at a price where they will move quickly, but you do not want to undersell yourself either.  Why sell for $5, if every single person is willing to give you $10?  What many YuGiOh players fail to understand is that if you are always looking for the maximum amount of profit, you are actually leaving money on the table.  For instance, if market value on a card is between $75-85 and you hope to get $80, but you only paid $50-60, if you are trying to sell it as efficiently as possible, the first person to offer you between $70-75 should be who you are selling it to.  If you manage to get $80, great.  The trouble is that the amount of time you are holding on to the card trying to get $80, the card value can change and you may end up with less.  You are also unable to put that $70 back into cards that will in turn make you more profit.

The cheaper you buy, the cheaper you are able to sell.  Do not be greedy.  It is actually quite simple and they are words to live by.  The entire business is about turnover.  If you are not turning cards over, you should ultimately consider a different operating model.  In short, the quick profit is always the best profit.  There is no shame in making a few bucks here and there on small cards.  Those few dollars here and there all add up and they are all profit as far as you are concerned.

Blankets are for the Cold

Earlier this week, while reading posts on Duelistgroundz and a local Facebook ygo group, it became apparent that a number of players still believe that blanket effects are not bad for the game.  A blanket effect is something that manages to stop the majority or all of your opponent’s card effects from having a relevance to the current gamestate.  In short, your opponent cannot play yugioh.  The latest format marks the second format in a row where the most common blanket spell/traps have been limited to one, these cards being Dimensional Fissure, Macro Cosmos, and Soul Drain.  While I can admit, there are formats that I cannot even imagine going through without Macro Cosmos at three, namely the Wind-Ups/Inzektors/Dragons format for one, I realize that with the advent of more and more blanket spell/traps the more the metagame is able to overdose on them. 

Generally, the decks that play blanket cards are able to sustain themselves by not hindering their own plays due to the use of the card.  Hindering their own plays would simply defeat the purpose of playing the card in the first place.  When blanket spells were ran in threes in some sideboards, competing decks that were wrecked by these cards would typically side so that they played five or more ways to get rid of the problem.  Typically, I would play three Mystical Space Typhoon and two Dust Tornado to combat against them.  With the recent lists however, many decks have cut back on the amount of singular removal they have been playing simply due to less cards being out there.  While this is a solid argument, I believe it to be one that may be flawed.

Granted, nobody wants to have a hand full of removal when your opponent is dropping an aggressive board or did not happen to even draw into their outs.  For instance, drawing multiple Space Typhoons early game in Mermails is often incredibly frustrating, depending on the rest of the hand of course.  Nothing is more frustrating though, than your opponent having a card that shuts down the entirety of your plays and you having little to no way of fighting back against it unless you draw your out.  This past weekend at ARGCS Las Vegas, six Mermail decks made the top cut.  Of those six Mermail decks, four played five spell/trap outs to face-up backrow and the last two played seven outs.  Many of the decks maindecking three of them in the form of Mystical Space Typhoons. 

My personal theory behind this is because multiple decks play different forms of outs now besides just the standard Dimensional Fissure, Macro Cosmos, and Soul Drain that we had grown so accustom to.  While these are clearly still prevalent and remain humungous threats if left on the board for too long, others such as Skill Drain, Mistake, Kasier Colosseum, Vanity’s Emptiness, and more remain relevant and at three.  Thus, the successful players from this past weekend ensured themselves constantly and consistently having an out to these cards by playing a large number of cards that got rid of them.  In turn, by playing a larger number of cards that get rid of these outs, the opponent has to draw more of their outs, but also outdraw your backrow hate all at the same time.  This ultimately makes those frustrating times when the opponent has the out and you cannot draw a Typhoon, Twister, Dust Tornado, or backrow removal of some kind, few and far between. 

Speaking of Twister, this is another card that has received a lot of attention recently.  Twister has received attention due to the fact that you can just “draw it and play it”.  Everything that you will ever want to usually use a Mystical Space Typhoon or a Dust Torando on, is usually face-up.  For instance, Tenki, Fiendish Chain, Macro Cosmos, Dimensional Fissure, Soul Drain, Kaiser Colosseum, and Vanity’s Emptiness, just to name a few.  Sometimes having that card a turn earlier, has the potential to win you the game, especially in a deck like Mermails where pesky blankets prevent them from doing anything.  Not surprisingly, two out of the six Mermail decks in Las Vegas played at least two copies of Twister.  Another two opted on two copies of Dust Tornado among their spell/trap removal.  In short, regardless of the limitation of the most powerful blanket spell and traps, new ones arose to take their place in the spotlight and thus we must side accordingly.

I expect something very similar to happen next format with Light-Imprisoning Mirror.  Both Light-Imprisoning and Shadow-Imprisoning have formats where they shine especially bright.  Next format, will be no exception.  While Light-Imprisoning is a solid side deck card at the moment, against both Bujins and Hieratics, it will no doubt become more significant next format, when the highly anticipated Artifact monsters are released in Primal Origin.  

Ultimately, blanket cards create a paradox.  When a deck is extremely over-powered, having a card that stops it dead in its tracks seems a little bit fair.  That said, blanket cards remain not good for the game, if we continue to follow the theory of “cards that do not allow people to play are not good for the game”.  Therefore, a case by case basis seems the most fair to determine whether or not further action should be taken against the card, other than it just getting Space Typhooned.  As currently situated, I believe that the blankets that are limited are fine, however, in the coming months with new archetypes being released that could change drastically.

Ban List Desire

Every few months it seems as though all Yu-Gi-Oh! players have the same point of discussion on their minds.  As most players have already deduced, there are only 18 more days left in March, signalling the end of the current ban list.  This means that quite shortly, expected as early as tomorrow, the new ban list could be announced.  While this is not in any way, shape or form the new ban list, this is what I would long for the ban list to represent.  While I expect a few of these changes will inevitably take place, if many did, I would be happily surprised.

This current format has come and gone seemingly slowly, despite it being shorter than any previous format in recent memory.  Coincidentally, the speed of the game has similarly dropped in pace.  Most of my matches in the previous format were intense Dragon Ruler mirrors and -normally- not very drawn out.  This format is the complete opposite, where every single game feels like a grind game.  Whether you are grinding your opponent for advantage with Mermails or getting in there with Bears and Gorillas, the format is noticeably slower.

While I have enjoyed playing Mermails for the entirety of this format, I feel that it is coming time for something new.  Looking forward to Primal Origin, there will be a new archetype on the horizon in Artifacts.  Artifacts seem to be no less than the real deal and will pose a great task to those playing against them to play around.  Sylvans obtain quality support and depending on how favorable the ban list is to them, could really pack a punch.  Past those two decks, I have not looked in to too-too much from Primal Origins, however I realize that the set will once again break the game open.  That said, I believe the changes I have made in my version of the list below would correct and -balance- some of what Yu-Gi-Oh! currently is.  I would be a fool to think this list is perfect, and I certainly do not claim it to be, but I have put a lot of thought into many of the choices and what I have coming on and off of the list.  Here it is.

Forbidden:
Blaster, Dragon Ruler of Infernos
Genex Ally Birdman
Honest
Limiter Removal
M-X-Saber Invoker
Morphing Jar
Redox, Dragon Ruler of Boulders
Rekindling
Spellbook of Fate
Tempest, Dragon Ruler of Storms
Tidal, Dragon Ruler of Waterfalls

Blaster, Dragon Ruler of Infernos: All of the Dragon Rulers to me are poorly designed.  At one, in theme specific decks they feel increasingly unfair. When one player gets it and the other doesn't having an insta-level 7-big beater/defender seems pretty unreal to me.  Not only that, despite being a shadow of its former self, Dragon Rulers lived on in Hieratic-Ruler form in the current format.  Thus, my list banishes the dragon rulers into the shadow realm.

Genex-Ally Birdman: Since this card was released, I long thought it to be a "waiting for something to break it" card.  It was "good" in numerous decks, but nothing really broke it until Geargia.  The card is entirely unfair creating an incredible string of wombo-combos.

Honest: When I first came back to Yu-Gi-Oh! after a four year hiatus, I could hardly believe this card existed, let alone was once at three.  Numerous times it has made my blood boil when it has been topdecked against me for game.  The title of this blog was thrown around a couple of times in those games for certain.

Limiter Removal: Poor card design makes this card what it is.  Put simply, they make a special place for cards like this in Yu-Gi-Oh! and that is the forbidden list.

M-X-Saber Invoker: This card opens too many combos for decks that have good but fair cards in them.  Numerous otks can exist with this card and cannot exist without it.  The banhammer seems good for it.

Morphing Jar: Unbalanced in today's game, and with my unlimiting of Book of Moon, Morphing Jar has to go to prevent "Empty Jar" from rearing its ugly head.

Redox, Dragon Ruler of Boulders: Re: Blaster, Dragon Ruler of Infernos

Rekindling: Another card with poor card design, that allows for lame topdeck situations or for you to outplay your opponent, only for them to have a Rekindling.  Must be nice.

Spellbook of Fate: Spellbooks are a completely fair deck.  Without Spellbook of Fate.  They do a lot of things well, and they do a lot of things that will still be -really- good even without their incredibly broken, utility belt, quick-play spell card.

Tempest, Dragon Ruler of Storms: Re: Blaster, Dragon Ruler of Infernos

Tidal, Dragon Ruler of Waterfalls: Re: Blaster, Dragon Ruler of Infernos & oh yeah, it is pretty good in Mermails I hear.

Limited:
Brotherhood of the Fire Fist - Rooster
Coach Soldier Wolfbark
Elemental Hero Bubbleman
Elemental Hero Stratos
Geargiarmor
Hieratic Dragon King of Atum
Lavalval Chain
Mermail Abyssteus
Reckless Greed
Tribe-Infecting Virus
Trishula, Dragon of the Ice Barrier

Brotherhood of the Fire Fist - Rooster: While this card is not exactly unfair, it is not exactly fair either.  While I do not think hitting it to one will do much, at least the ability to repeatedly wash-repeat Tenki into Gyokkou is gone...more or less.

Coach Soldier Wolfbark: While it is a bit of a theme-specific Debris Dragon, it is also searchable by a searchable card and creates the best xyz monsters in the game.  I would love to see it go to one, but would not be surprised if Konami only semi-limited or even left it completely untouched.

Elemental Hero Bubbleman: Creates a silly otk deck that leaves Elemental Hero Stratos banned and subsequently a pretty fair deck in Elemental Heroes from not being very competitive.

Elemental Hero Stratos: With Bubbleman limited to one, Elemental Hero Stratos still does what it has always done best, but does not create as many unreal Excalibur/Blade Armor Ninja otks.

Geargiarmor: One of the cards I would be most happy limiting.  While at one it still has incredible tutorability, it does hit the consistency of the Geargia deck as a whole.

Hieratic Dragon King of Atum: This card is incredibly good and creates silly otks.  Seems fair to levy a restriction on its use.

Lavalval Chain: While I believe hitting most other cards in Infernity would level the deck in its entirety, by limiting Lavalval Chain to one, they still have access to mostly everything they did before, but do not have the ability to dump more than one card with it in a turn.  They do not have the ability to essentially tutor Stygian Street Patrols to their graveyard allowing them to "keep going". 

Mermail Abyssteus: Mermail cannot simply go untouched.  The deck is arguably one of the best decks in the format.  Tidal, Dragon Ruler of Waterfalls is a significant blow, but its consistency needs to take a hit.  In my opinion, it was either Abyssteus or Mermail Abyssgunde, but I believe that in order to survive, Mermails would require Abyssgunde as they are a more level 4 centric deck under this list than ever before.

Reckless Greed: Decks that just "win" when they are allowed to use multiple Reckless Greeds in one turn, like Dark World and Mermails should have to turn to other cards to do their dirty work for them or grind out advantage more efficiently rather than being gifted it by drawing into multiple Reckless.

Tribe-Infecting Virus: While I would be more comfortable with this card coming off of the list if it were "Once per turn", I do not believe it to be entirely outrageous either.

Trishula, Dragon of the Ice Barrier: While it sucked having this card played against you, it was a card that you could usually outskill your opponent with.  Remember how good it felt when your opponent went into this card first turn?  It does not seem unreasonable for Trishula to come back at one. 

Semi-Limited:
Bottomless Trap Hole
Bujin Yamato
Fire Formation - Tenki

Bottomless Trap Hole: Additional removal should be in the game.  It is good for the game and makes your opponents think about their plays more, as you are able to have a more quality backrow facedown.

Bujin Yamato: Bujins get additional support, and Yamato is already searchable.  It does not seem unreasonable to have it semi'd at two.

Fire Formation - Tenki: This card is too good and prevalent at three but not prevalent enough at one.  At one, it would cripple many decks in the format.  Thus, having it at two seems like a compromise.

Unlimited:
Book of Moon
Dimensional Prison
Dragon Ravine
Gold Sarcophagus
Mirror Force
Reborn Tengu
Sacred Sword of Seven Stars
Thunder King Rai-Oh

Book of Moon: Again, a great responsive card and completely fair and skillful to use.  I have no idea why this card has remained at one for so long.

Dimensional Prison: The game needs removal and Dimensional Prison does not deserve to be limited at all.  Even in a Storm-less format.

Dragon Ravine: With all of the Dragon Rulers at 0, Dragon Ravine can be at three once again.  Despite still being ridiculous in Dragunities, both Maxx "C" and Effect Veiler are highly effective against that deck, regardless if it is a level eight synchro toolbox.

Gold Sarcophagus: This card was unlimited and barely saw play prior to the Dragon Rulers, I do not see why it couldn't be the same if they are forbidden.

Mirror Force: There are numerous cards to play around the destruction of multiple attacking monsters.  In addition, multiple Mirror Force promote "good" play and discourage over-extensions.

Reborn Tengu: This card is essentially irrelevant at anything other than three.  For the most part, Glow-Up Bulb and Avarice made this card unbearably ridiculous.  With both of those cards gone, I would be interested in seeing if it could exist in a somewhat fair manner.

Sacred Sword of Seven Stars: Absolutely no reason for limitation with the Dragon Rulers at zero.

Thunder King Rai-Oh: While I am not thrilled of the thought of this card at three in a Stormless format, "Summon Thunder King, set 4-5" was a common theme in the past, I see Thunder King as a necessary evil.  Many decks played it in the past even without some relevance to its theme, just because Thunder King slowed the game down, was a good beater, and had the ability to prevent an opponent's future play.  Meaning it required the opponent to think in order to get around it.

That about wraps up my ban list desires.  Food for thought.  Thanks for reading.