Estimation of Damages

As YuGiOh players, one thing that we all have to do post-reprints or post-ban list release is review what has happened and what this means going forward.  By comparison, in the stock market there are days when there are major market releases, such as, the job numbers for American economy or whether or not interest rates will be raised.  Similar to the YuGiOh marketplace, this can incite panic or bullishness amongst investors.  We must determine what our value situation is going forward on certain cards, whether it is a good idea to move them now (are they peaking or have they peaked?) or whether it is a good idea to hang on to them (do we think they will rise or peak higher in the future?).  Sounds simple enough, right?  As discussed in the previous article, there are numerous factors that can affect the outcome of the value of these cards.  Here are some cards that I currently believe are amongst the worst losers, biggest gainers, and sleepers among the recently announced information from the fresh ban list to the both the Premium Gold & Fire Fist Special Edition.

Biggest Losers

Coach Soldier Wolfbark

Okay this almost goes without saying.  A popular secret rare, played in one of the best decks in the expiring format at three, and it has recently been limited to one.  It will not only cause an influx in supply, there will be people dropping the deck as well, because they have come to the conclusion that with Wolfbark at one the deck simply will not be competitive enough for them.  Ultimately, Wolfbark may never reach its lofty heights again.

Was: $40-50 (Peak ~$55-60)

Now: $20-25

Fire Formation – Tenki (Ultimate Rare)

While this is a bit speculative, since Ultimate Rare Tenki is still between $45-50 on eBay at the moment, with it being released in both Premium Gold and the Fire Fist Special Edition in such rapid succession, I believe that this could potentially drop the value of Ultimate Rare Tenki by a little bit.  It will not plummet by any stretch of the imagination but it may bring it back to reality slightly.

Speculation: $30-35

Now: $45-50

Brotherhood of the Fire Fist – Tiger King (Any)

Again, speculative as the price has not yet moved too much from where it was prior to the ban list, but Tiger King does see its first reprint in Premium Gold next week and with Fire Fist taking a significant hit with the limitation of Coach Soldier Wolfbark, Tiger King could see a decline in popularity and therefore a decline in price.

Speculation: $5-7 (Ultra)/$10-12 (Ultimate)

Now: $8-10 (Ultra)/$15-20 (Ultimate)

Biggest Winners

Necroface (GLAS Secret, 1^st Edition)

Necroface is known to many duelists as that card that went crazy around pre-order time and for a long time after its release.  For those who are not aware, Necroface went crazy around pre-order time.  It jumped from being a $150-200 preorder to a $300-400 card almost instantaneously.  Those who were holding them prior to it getting semi-limited are happy as they saw a bit of appreciation in their investment.

Was: $45-50

Now: $90-100

Geargiagear

Surprisingly, Geargia was not hit at all on the ban list and with great support coming in Geargiauger and other level three support coming soon as well, Geargiagear could prove to be a profitable investment.  At a relatively low cost of $2.50-3 at the moment, it could see a rise to ~$7 given the chance and if it were considered the top deck in a format.

Speculation: $6-7

Now: $3

Geargiarmor

For the same reasons above, Geargiarmor is the heart of the deck and could see a significant rise as well.

Speculation: $15-20

Now: $10

Sleepers

Armades, Keeper of Boundaries

Okay, this card is already worth a pretty decent buck.  Make no mistake though, this card is really, really good.  It will continue to rise slowly and those who pick them up will be rewarded.

Forbidden Lance (Common)

Forbidden Lance is incredibly easy to find at the moment.  I remember a time back around BP01 where this card was a solid $3-5 and I dropped the ball thinking it would never go much higher than that.  Remember when they rose to ~$10 before BP02 came out and settled it back down a bit?  That will happen again.  Forbidden Lance is far too versatile a card to remain this low on the secondary market for a very long time.  Hoard them for now.

Ally of Justice Cycle Reader

This is a pre-PRIO play that still has room to go up.  They are obviously substantially more than what they were had you picked them up when you were supposed to ages ago, however they have room to grow.  Remember Droll & Lock Bird?  This card was in a pretty crappy Hidden Arsenal that most people only bought for Barkion.  It will also be needed in droves when it comes time for Artifacts to shine.  Gather them up.

Daigusto Emeral

While people obviously already know about Emeral and are aware of it as a card, I feel we are not far away from this card being a popular extra-deck monster.  At that time, it will only go up from where it is now, probably to similar heights as its HA07 counterpart, Lavalval Chain.

Remember to be patient and diversify your investments in different cards.  Do not invest so much into something that it will saturate your market when you the value of the card actually goes up.  If it rises incredibly, then of course it will not matter how many you have since you can unload them all online.  Sometimes your investments will not pan out though, and you will want to be able to liquidate your position quickly and safely.