Yugi-Nomics: Market Capitalization

Any player with skin in the game knows that they should pay attention to event results and attempt to figure out how they will impact the secondary market.  What may seem like the most obvious way to do this is to see what is doing well at an event and buy into it, but this does not always pay off.  While players actually at the event may be scrambling to get their hands on the next greatest thing in the world, the supply at this event will be extremely low, when compared to the world, and especially if the card was irrelevant prior to this.  This means that the price may not see the same sort of appreciation post-event.  In addition, other factors contribute to the card’s price beyond how it fared in the event, including but not limited to, a newly discovered tech or combo and hype.  For instance, earlier this year when a number of premier players topped with Full House in their decks the card was ripe for the picking, as cheap as $0.25, rising as high as $5-8.  The profit margin available on these types of pickups is humungous, even if you have to unload them lower than everyone else to get rid of your quantity.

In order to profit off of these buys correctly, you need to get in at the right time or you can get burned.  If you get in before the card price sees a significant spike then there can be great deals to be had.  If you get in late and the card price is peaking, then you are going to be stuck with a loss or at best, a break-even.  Therefore, a lot of the time buying into cards with prices even above $10 can be extremely risky and not worthwhile, unless you are absolutely certain the price will rise.  For instance, many people thought after YCS Toronto in 2012 that Grandsoil was going to be an incredible force in the metagame, some going as far as calling it the next Dark Armed.  If they had a fair quantity of the card and got in early enough¹, the may have made a massive profit, but if you were like most and got in too late, your investment dropped like a rock².

As a buyer, there are frequently safe (and cheap!) investments to pour cards into.  Currently a number of these cards exist, where the value is currently low, but is bound to rise, or conversely the value is extremely stable and will likely not go anywhere even with virtually any sort of reprint.  Here are some that I believe to be solid choices at the moment and another more speculative choice, moving forward.

Stardust Dragon

Stardust Dragon is a popular card and comes in virtually every single rarity imaginable.  It has seen a number of reprints lately including both the Shadow Specters SE and the latest Gold Series.  Stardust Dragon is a card that is not only a powerful monster, but is loved by fans of the anime alike.  As soon as these products go out of print, I am confident Stardust Dragon will creep back up in value, regardless of the rarity.  It was not too long ago that I could not manage to keep my hands on this card.

Stardust Spark Dragon

While Stardust Spark Dragon is a card that will see an inevitable reprint, I believe it to be undervalued because it has a very good effect that can lockout opponents and be difficult to play around.  If you can pick them up cheap enough, then stock up and hold on for the ride.  A number of manga cards prior to this have shot up in value after release and once the manga was gone, this will be one of those as well.

Effect Veiler & Maxx “C” (Super)

This rarity of two of the most powerful hand traps specifically is treated like gold.  There are very few other cards that are easier $10 bills than these.  There are many times when trading, I will gladly go even if I am moving something hard to move for one of these since it is almost the equivalent to moving it for $10 cash.

Traptrix Trap Hole

While this remains speculative, I believe this card could rise in the short future due to the nature of the current list.  The format we are currently in requires that we have numerous pre-emptive responses, such as Solemn Warning, Bottomless Trap Hole, or Black Horn of Heaven, rather than more traditional responses such as Dimensional Prison or Mirror Force.  Traptrix Trap Hole is sort of a cross between a traditional response and a pre-emptive response.  While it requires something to happen and you can draw it after the opponent already has the monster on board, you can still activate it during the main phase where the bulk of the opponent’s play will occur.  In addition, it has powerful interactions with cards like Gear Gigant X, as if the opponent activates its effect it causes it to miss the timing, because Traptrix Trap Hole does not negate activations.  I strongly believe after YCS Las Vegas this card will see considerably more play than it does now, causing its price to rise.

In short, many cards will rise and fall during an event, but if you are going to try your hand at market capitalization, get in early and know when to get out. 

¹ Prior to YCS Toronto, Grandsoil was between $10-12

² Near the end of YCS Toronto, Grandsoil had risen to over $40, but quickly began to drop back down to earth, settling around $20, but eventually dropping to the $5-8 that is currently at today